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Sunday, December 31, 2006 in Larry Brown | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Gut Check

College football is fun and all, but Sunday belongs to the NFL. Week 17... some teams are hungry, some teams are over it. Either way, here are a couple of lines we're considering...
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Brees81306Saints (+1) vs Panthers.
 The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog, the dog's 9-3 ATS in the last 12 games between these two teams, and the Panthers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
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Texans (-5) vs Browns. Both of these teams leave much to be desired, but the Texans suck worse at home than the Browns suck on the road (point scoring differentials: HOU -2.0 home, CLE -7.9 away). Plus, the Texans tend to exceed expectations in December (HOU: 8-3 ATS in their last 11 December games).
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Good luck and Happy New Year NBXers!

Sunday, December 31, 2006 in Gut Checks, NFL | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Bobby Knight and 880

Saturday, December 30, 2006 by Tom Kress

Bobby_knight You could go either way on this topic depending if you have supported The General over the past thirty years or not.  Yeah he has definitely been in the middle of controversy and it seems like he can't keep his hands off of the student athletes on the court.  Personally, I think that Bobby Knight is just blowing smoke up the media's ass to make a point of his no-nonsense approach and disregard for anyone but himself.
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It may not be a big deal to himself, but it is a big deal to other people who watch college basketball or are college basketball analysts or personalities.  I am sure it is a big deal  Dean Smith and the legendary Adolph Rupp.  Obviously, it is a big deal to former players and teammates otherwise John Havlicek and Steve Alford wouldn't of been in Lubbock on Thursday night to watch the Red Raiders' loss to UNLV.
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For once, can Bobby Knight be normal and say he is actually excited about something besides what object he can think of throwing on the floor next?  The media has not over-hyped Knight to 880...but they have done it justice by covering it when he got to a certain stage...which was around win 875.  He will be happy once his team gets that next win and the media swarm leaves Lubbock and he can get back to the business of being Bobby Knight.
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Bobby_knight_the_onion Personally, I have always been a Bobby Knight supporter but it comes to a point were he annoys you by putting that team first non-sense in the forefront when you damn well know he wants the record.  He doesn't even acknowledge it and it is BS.  Get back to the team goals after you get the win and earth to Bobby Knight...if you get the win...you get the record and you achieve a team goal.  Why else would he stick around so long?  You can't count that crap that he does it for the love of the game.  He is way past that point in his coaching career.
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With New Mexico and Oklahoma coming up at home and then with two road tilts against Kansas State and Baylor, we should see Bobby Knight reach 880 and surpass it...but crazier things have happened.  For the average college basketball fan and the media, lets just hope he gets this done sooner than later.  One thing is for certain, win #880 will come in 2007...with the first chance on the hardwood on January 1st against the Lobos.

Saturday, December 30, 2006 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Gut Check

The good news... the college bowl games are starting to get good. The bad news... it's going to get tougher to predict the outcomes. Win or lose, enjoy it while you still can. Here are a couple of lines we're considering...
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Mccoy_colt061010bTexas (-8.5) vs Iowa.
Texas has been solid on the road this season (point scoring differential: +13.2) while Iowa has struggled (PSD: -0.6). And, despite having won the National Championship last season, the Longhorns have done much better against the spread both overall (All Games ATS: Texas 5-6, Iowa 1-10) and on the road (Road Games ATS: Texas 2-3, Iowa 0-5) than the Hawkeyes. 
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Under (37.5) Virginia Tech vs Georgia. 37.5 is a low number but this match-up features two very stingy defenses who have allowed a combined average of 26.4 points per game (V-Tech 9.3, Georgia  17.1). Plus, you gotta like that the under has covered in all 4 of the Hokies last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record and that these teams went a combined 7-15 O/U this season (V-Tech: 3-8, Georgia 4-7).

Saturday, December 30, 2006 in Gut Checks, NCAAF | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Who are the sports junkies liking?

Friday, December 29, 2006 by NBX Wisegirls

TexansThere are a ri-goddamn-diculous number of games to bet your points, paycheck or pinky finger on this weekend.  So who are our resident sports junkies, Tom Kress and Larry Brown, liking?
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NFL:  Tom is taking the Texans (-4.0), the Chargers (-13.5) and Da' Bears (-3.0).  Larry thinks the Chiefs, Rams and Saints are where the smart green is at.
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NCAAF:  Tommy Boy is confident in the BC Eagles (-6.0), Georgia (+2.5), Auburn (-1.5) and West Virginia will get the job done.  Larry's riding Maryland, Navy and Miami.
...Gonzaga
NBA:  Tom likes the Suns (Fri), Magic (Sat) and Mavs (Sun) to cover.  And Larry is looking at the Bucks tonight, Warriors (Sat) and Lakers (Sun).
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College Hoops:  Mr. Kress knows Gonzaga will take down Nevada, WVU will come up short against UConn and Arizona is gonna roll Stanford.  Heck of a Job Browny likes Air Force tonight, Oregon tomorrow and Washington Sunday.
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Tom and Larry will be dropping knowledge with their picks and the news that breaks over the weekend.  So hit up the site for their blog posts and podcasts.

Friday, December 29, 2006 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Week 17 is Kind of Important

Nobody on earth...not even Brett Favre himself...would have predicted the clusterfuck of Wild Card playoff scenarios we're looking at heading into Week 17.  NFL laydowns for the last few weeks have Giants_crumble been guided by motivation.  And that playoff motivation obviously paid off since there are still so many teams in post season contention.  So you've got a little bankroll burning a hole in your pocket...now what?  Let's break this mess down...
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Giants @ Redskins. The Skins are getting 1.0 point on the spread as a home dog.  Not much margin to work with but I gotta like Washington in this matchup.  I'll admit that emotions are driving my pick since I REALLY want to see some Manning family members cry on TV.  Emotions aren't usually a good way to throw your green at the betting lines.  However Eli is also an emotional little bitch and will blow this game (just like he has 6 of the Giants' last 7) to spite his old man and big bro.
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JAX @ KC.  With the Chiefs playing some good ball and the Jags awful road record, I'm thinking KC will get it done at home...where the weather forecast calls for sloppy, cold mud.
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Saints_1 Carolina @ Nawlins.   Are you kidding me?  The Saints as a 3 point home dog against the roller coaster Panthers?  Easy pickins since a New Orleans win locks up a bye and avenges their October loss to Carolina.
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Patriots @ Titans.  If the Titans could erase the month of September, they'd be a lock for a playoff spot.  As it stands now there's a shit load of ifs in their Wild Card scenario.  But Vince Young seems to love ifs, insults and challenges...so the Titans are a decent bet against a New England team that's unlikely to land a bye without some serious luck.
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Carson_palmer_sweep_the_leg Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati.  What the hell happened to the Bengals?  Oh that's right...arrests, a tough schedule and a shit load of injuries.  With the Steelers looking at this game as their last chance to salvage some pride and a .500 season, I'm liking the dog plus 6 points...especially if the Steelers try a sweep the leg move on Carson Palmer again.
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St. Louis @ Minnesota.  Everybody says the Rams are coming on strong at the end of the season.  But an OT win vs the Redskins and a beat down of the Raiders hardly make a team a true contender.  This game is obviously a coin toss since different sportsbooks are confused over how to balance the action.  Probably best to NOT watch this game and just pretend it never happened.
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SF @ Denver. I can personally guarantee that one of these two mediocre teams will definitely win this game!  I suppose Shanahan's experience, the thin air at Mile High and the blizzard conditions look good for a Broncos win.  But I sure as hell wouldn't count on them to cover the 11.0 points.Favre_winning_2
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Falcons @ Eagles.  Jeff Garcia and Philly have a damn good shot at putting the nail in Michael Vick's season Sunday at The Linc.  But with Vick scrambling against the porous Philly run defense, I could definitely see ATL staying within 9.0 points to cover that thick spread.
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Brett Favre @ Rex Grossman.
If you had to pick a quarterback to count on in a high pressure, rivalry situation (that's also do or die for one man's season/career/mojo)...would you pick Brett Favre or Rex Grossman?  Thought so.  Me too.  Green Bay +3.0 will make the Favre long ball a hell of a lot of fun to watch while you're getting drunk on New Year's Eve.

Friday, December 29, 2006 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Gut Check

Three more bowl games...three more favorites covering the spread.  If you failed to heed Sweet Lou's advice, you're probably spending the day trying to trade Old Navy gift cards for real Clemson_footballdough to cover your losses.  Bummer.  Here's a couple lines that might help you get back into the green.
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Clemson (-10.0) vs Kentucky.
  This bet is all about the PSDs (point scoring differentials).  For the season, the Tigers have a massive +18.6 PSD, which looks pretty good stacked up to the Wildcats' -2.5 PSD.  If you thought that was bad for Kentucky's chances, consider their -20.2 PSD on the road vs Clemson's +10.6!!!  And the kicker...the Wildcats suck on grass as you can see by their -2.5 PSD on mow-able fields.  The Tigers on the other hand sport a +20.6 PSD on Carl Spackler's finest.
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The Under (65.5) in the Minnesota vs Texas Tech game.  These are two high scoring teams, but even their large combined average offensive totals don't break 60 points (MIN 27.9, Tech 31.5).  And since each team's D can hold their own (MIN 24.5, Tech 23.8)...you've gotta like the Under. 

Friday, December 29, 2006 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

The List

Thursday, December 28, 2006 by NBX Crew

Since you can't turn on a TV, open the sports page or surf the internet without somebody giving you their "Top 5 something of the Year", your old pal Sweet Lou figured I should get in on the trend.  So here you go.  It's my Top 5 of the Year.  "Top 5 what?" you're Vince_young_4probably asking.  Well, there  ain't no catchy little theme or common thread holding this list together.  Deal with it.
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5.  The Hawks.  Yeah, that's right the ATLANTA HAWKS.  They sucked bad in the 05-06 season.  In fact, they sucked so bad that The House had to give them ridiculous love on the spread in order to balance out the action on these dogs.  And those extra points helped these chumps to a .500 season ATS...which in turn helped yours truly to a stack of green for picking his spots wisely.
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4.  The Longhorns Vince Young.  Seeing one guy single-handedly win the Rose Bowl, and show up a smug white kid in the process, felt good...but not as good as counting the green I picked up for riding the dog Longhorns.  What you've really gotta love about this kid though is the fact that he's keeping the gravy train rolling right along with the Titans.  Makes all that talk about Wonderlich scores and mechanics look pretty stupid, doesn't it.
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Tyson_1 3.  Mike Tyson.  Exhibition tour, rumors of a porn career, rumors of becoming a man-whore and criminal charges abroad.  Another entertaining year from the trainwreck.  The only thing holding him back from the top spot on The List is the lack of betting action on him since nobody bets on Globetrotter games or boxing exhibitions.
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2.  Dwayne Wade.  He was like the NBA's Vince Young last season.  The Heat shit canned their coach, skated into the playoffs out of an easy conference and barely escaped the Baby Bulls.  Then everybody on the team just stood back and watched while Flash sliced and diced the Mavs.  Impressive, but the smart greenWade_3 didn't line up behind them until the Finals cuz their ATS record was awful through the regular season.  And by the way, that's a fact that should be making you some dough this year too.
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1.  College Bowl Games.  Sure, they're not all marquee match-ups you actually give a  shit about.  But only a fool isn't making some green on the favorites this season, since they're off to a 6-3 ATS start in the bowls.  The dogs will have their day when the BCS teams crank up.  In the mean time, keep milking the mismatches for all they're worth...and you'll start 2007 with a little more in your bankroll.

Thursday, December 28, 2006 | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Gut Check

Some lucky bastard out there had the rodeo ride of their life at a post-Emerald Bowl celebration.  But since that probably wasn't you, Rutgers_jumphopefully you at least picked up some green on yesterday's FSU +3.5 line.  Another day, another stack of college bowl dollars...
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Rutgers (-7.5) vs Kansas State.  Ok, who out there agrees that Rutgers would be a hell of a lot more intimidating if they were called "Jersey State" instead of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.  Sounds Ivy League-ish.  We honestly think that hurts their reputation with the BCS, polls and bettors.  Anyway since Houston is an away game for both teams, the point scoring differentials on the road (RUT +5.0, KSU -10.0) give a good indication of how this game should play out.  And when you consider that both teams played Louisville this season with very mixed results...Rutgers won 28-25 and KSU lost 6-24...you've gotta like the New Jersey State Wiseguys.
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The Under (53.0) in the Texas A&M vs Cal game.  Joey Public always likes the Over.  And Joe Bob Public alumni fans must bet every last dollar they earn in their animal husbandry careers on the Over in the Aggies bowl games cuz they have gone a miserable 1-4 o/u in their last 5 bowls.  Throw in both teams' o/u records on the road this season (A&M 2-3, CAL 1-4) and this Under looks like the smart play.

Thursday, December 28, 2006 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Sweet and Sour

Wednesday, December 27, 2006 by Hot Rod

It's time to start paying attention to college hoops cuz March Madness will be here before we know it. Unfortunately, it's still too early to tell who's gonna be "hot and not" two and a half months from now. However, most of the top 16 teams in the 2006 tournament have played enough lined games so far this season for us to identify who'll be covering spreads the next few weeks.
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Noah_1Sweet 16 teams in 2006 tournament currently in AP Top 25...
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#1 UCLA (7-2 ATS):
The Bruins look good and have been covering spreads. They're definitely not a team to bet against right now.
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#3 Florida (4-2-1 ATS):
The Gators are legit. Unfortunately, their stomping of Ohio State last Saturday will probably mean larger spreads in the coming weeks.
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#5 Duke (7-5 ATS):
The Blue Devils are always a force to reckon with. The trouble is they're a public team that will be tough to find value in.
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#12 UConn (5-1 ATS):
The Huskies are undefeated and on fire ATS. We'll have a better idea of what they're made of this Saturday when they face their first serious opponent in West Virginia.
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#16 Wichita State (4-2 ATS):
The Shockers have lost two straight road games against unranked teams. Let's see if they bounce back this weekend before hopping back on the "2 in the pink, 1 in the stink" train.
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#17 LSU (2-6 ATS):
The Tigers are a very talented but overrated team. And, their 2 and 6 ATS record makes them a good team to bet against right now.
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Frankyoung3906_1#22 Memphis (4-7 ATS):
The Tigers have struggled against formidable opponents and their ATS record doesn't inspire much confidence going forward.
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Keep an eye on these four Sweet 16 teams
from the 2006 tournament that have been covering spreads... West Virginia (6-1 ATS), Bradley (7-3 ATS), Villanova (5-2-1 ATS), Boston College (5-2 ATS)
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Consider betting against these five Sweet 16 teams
from the 2006 tournament that have not been covering spreads... Texas (2-6 ATS), George Mason (2-3 ATS), Georgetown (4-4 ATS), Washington (4-6 ATS), Gonzaga (5-7 ATS)
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So many teams,
so little time... we'd better make watching more college hoops one of our New Year's resolutions.

Wednesday, December 27, 2006 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

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