Gut Check

Just when we think the evil bean counters running the NFL are oppressing the players and fans...they throw us a bone.  We hate the fact that they know how to keep us constantly coming back for more.  But anyway, it's like Christmas came early this year cuz we've got another NFL Thursday to follow up last week's football gluttony fest.  Here's where we're leaning as of right now...
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Ravens (+3.0) vs the Bengals.  The House seems to be giving Cincinnati more credit than they've earned this year cuz the numbers just don't add up.  Baltimore's +7.5 point scoring differential (PSD) shows how they've handled the competition this season, while the Bengals anemic +1.4 PSD proves they've struggled to get the job done.  And you've gotta like that even through their lean years, Baltimore found a way to cover the spread in 13 of their last 19 games vs Cinci.
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The Over (42.0) in the Ravens/Bengals game.  These teams have a long history of covering the Over (7-2).  The Bengals and Ravens both peak late in the season cuz they've gone for a combined 7-1 o/u record in Week 13 the past 4 years.
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Hardcore Ravens Fan + Free Time + Webcam = This

NFL = Not-so-Free-League

What do you get when you mix Chevy Trucks, the NFL and John Cougar Mellencamp?
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The Most Annoying ad in the history of TV timeouts.  But the bad song and cheesy video montage are nothing compared to the irony of "the voice of freedom" in the...
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NFL:  aka "Not-so-Free-League (video)
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And if screaming at the TV isn't enough...take more drastic measures.

Bulls Are Locking Horns

I didn't wanna touch this damn Ben Wallace headband story.  It seemed like yet another "controversy" cooked up by the media to sell papers and Chevy ads.  But hearing about this god damn thing 24/7 has forced me to think about it and form an opinion.  And somewhere in all this noise is a lesson for Bulls bettors...so you might wanna consider how it hits your bankroll.
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First of all, the sports hack slant on it, that it's just "team rules" and Wallace should bow down to his master coach is bullshit.  It's a headband, assholes.  Not a fedora.  Not a knife.  It's a functional piece of equipment that keeps sweat out of the Big Man's eyes while he plays.  If the coach wants to ban Livestrong bracelets or fruity diamond earrings, fine.  But if a professional, who you think enough of to drop $60 million on, feels naked without his headband on...let him wear it.
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Now that we've got that out of the way, let's look at what this stupid pissing match is really all about.  Obviously Scott Skiles coaching style has worked the last couple of years.  He took the Baby Bulls, molded 'em into NBA ballers and damn near beat the Heat in the Playoffs last season.  But his drill sergeant style only worked cuz he was coaching a bunch of inexperience, talented kids.  They didn't challenge Skiles stupid lines in the sand (lockerroom music, headbands and who knows what else).  Throw a Defensive Player of the Year with a Championship ring into the mix...and you've got problems.
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The only reason David Stern gets away with his bullshit rules...like tucking in your jersey, sitting quietly on the bench and never speaking ill of Big Brother the league...is cuz the players have no other choice.  What are they gonna do?  NBA Europe?  But the Bulls ain't the only team in the league who could use a good defensive player.  Piss Wallace off enough and you'll be watching his headband wearing ass in a different jersey stuffing the ball down the throat of your players.
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Coach Skiles...it's all about Ws.  The history books won't write much about the league's best dress code enforcer.  So until you wise up and get some decent play out of your team...the smart green is gonna go the other way.  Luckily last year's good post season performance impressed Joey Public and the linesetters enough to have them pump the Bulls up on the spread...and that leaves plenty of room to skin some green off of the clean cut Chicago Bulls.

Gut Check

According to ESPN and the other hacks, Ben Wallace's headband is the most important thing happening in the NBA right now.  But somewhere...deep down below the headlines...there's some teams kicking ass and earning green for their backers.  And on the menu today:
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Mavs (-10.5) vs the Raptors.  After their 0-4 start to the season, Cuban's team have won 10 straight.  And with the way Toronto is playing, they don't seem likely to stop Dallas' streak.  Dirk, Terry, Howard and Stackhouse are combining for 70 points on average.  And there are 8...that's right EIGHT...Mavs players shooting 33.3% or better from 3pt range.
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Magic (+2.5) vs the Sonics.  Seattle has lost 4 of their last 5 home games, so Orlando's hot streak gives them a great chance to win the game straight up.  And with Dwight Howard leading the league in rebounds this season...he should own the boards tonight in Seattle.
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HEADBANDS!!!  Get your Bulls Headbands HERE!!!

Top 5 Reasons to Root for UCLA over USC

There are a million reasons to hate USC.  Rich kids who think their shit don't stink.  Bikini clad chicks getting tan on campus between classes while you're school is snowed in.  And a football team that keeps hogging a spot in the BCS.
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But we've narrowed down the list to help you understand why you need to cheer for the Bruins this Saturday...
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Top 5 Reasons to Root for UCLA over USC (video)
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Better start learning the lyrics to "Mighty Bruins".

Only Bet on Brett in a Blizzard

Barring a miracle tragedy, last night was Brett Favre's last time under the Monday Night Lights.  And even though I've knocked the Old Man around for the past couple of seasons, I was pretty impressed with how he played...for the first half.
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Guaranteed Old Man River was boring the shit out of his young teammates before the game with his old war stories about games he won in the snow way back in the '90s.  "I remember that day, boys...the wind was cold and the snow...it was a whippin' 'round.  When that sleet hits a normal man in the face it stings...but not me...I'm Brett Favre god dang'it.  I feel no pain."
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But when he took the field while the snow was coming down, the Old Timer looked like he was having fun.  And with that weather, he wouldn't get blamed for his INTs like he does every other game.  So he was tearing it up out there like a kid home from school on a snow day.
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Unfortunately for Brett and the Packers, the snow stopped coming down and the Seahawks woke up in the 2nd half...when they outscored the Packers 22-10 to win straight up and cover the -9.5 spread.  So the take away lesson from the game should be...
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Only bet on Brett Favre and the Packers IF it is snowing during the game.
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To help guide you through the final few weeks of betting on the Brett Favre Farewell Tour...I looked up the weather predictions for each of their remaining games.
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New York Jets (this Sunday @ Green Bay).  The Packers are already a 1 point underdog in the sportsbooks and weather.com is calling for a "few snow showers".  That forecast isn't the blizzard Brett needs to pull off a win or 1 point loss this weekend.  So I'll be watching the Weather Channel and waiting til game time to place my bets.
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The 49ers (12/10/06 @ SF).  If it snows in San Francisco in 2 weeks...pack up your shit and head for the hills cuz Armageddon is here.  But on your way to your bunker in the desert, put a little on the 49ers to cover the spread.
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Detroit Lions (12/17/06 @ Green Bay).  The Farmer's Almanac is calling for "mild" weather with a few "flurries".  Taking on another shitball team from a snowy part of the country sounds like a real coin toss.  So this is another game time decision based on weather and how heavily the Packers are favored.
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Minnesotta Vikings (12/21/06 @ Green Bay).  Favre's only getting 4 days rest between home games here.  The weather is supposed to be "flurries and cold".  Not exactly what an Old Man with little time to heal needs to notch a win in his last home game.  But I might throw a little at the Packers if there's any white stuff falling that day just for nostalgia's sake.
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Chicago Bears (New Years Eve @ Chicago).  With "mild, rain and snow showers" on tap...I can't imagine Brett finishing with a win or covering the points.  Let's hope for a miracle blizzard that lets one of the NFL's finest QBs go out with a win.  But I'm sure as hell not gonna hold my breath waiting for that to happen if the Bears haven't already locked up their Playoff situation.  So this one's too early to call but I'm leaning towards Da' Bears.
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Pray for snow.

Gut Check

Last night was (hopefully) Brett Favre's last Monday Night Football game.  And if you thought he'd win one (or at least cover the 9.5 points) to go out with a bang...he screwed you again.  If you were smart enough to bet against a great QB who is past his prime...here's some options to roll your winnings into:
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Bulls (-7.5) vs the Knicks.  The Bulls whooped up on the Knicks in New York Saturday night winning by 11 points.  NY on the other hand has come up short against the spread in 4 of their last 5 games.  And you've gotta like that Starbury and Isiah's honeymoon is already on the rocks.
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Nets (-7.0) vs the Bobcats.  The Bobcats are off to a miserable 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS start to the season.  They've also been outscored by an average of 7.4 ppg in their last 5 and 5.6 ppg for the season so far.  In other words...their ship is sinking faster and faster.  New Jersey's not exactly shooting lights out this season, but they're back at home and ready to turn things around.
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The last time Madden calls a Favre game will look something like this.

Top 5 QB Meltdowns (Week 12)

Your four days of eating, getting drunk and watching sports are finally over and it's back to the grind.  What highlights are looping over and over again reel in your head as you pretend to work this morning?  Ronaldinho's beautiful goal?   The last play of the BYU/Utah game?  The sting from seeing your high school ex looking out of your league at the local pub on your annual Thanksgiving weekend binge night?
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As a bettor, the thing that should be occupying a lot of your mental capacity is the epic crumbles of some of the NFL's most hyped quarterbacks.  Week 12 saw some incredible shrinking QBs each trying to out choke one another.  So here's your list of the Top 5 QB Meltdowns of the week:
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5.  Eli Manning.  Sure you can blame the Giants' brain dead defenders for not finishing a clutch tackle in the 4th quarter.  Or chalk up the Titans come from behind miracle win to Vince "Freakish Athlete" Young.  But Eli should really be thanking Vince today for overshadowing his 2 INT's and 2nd half goose egg with the brilliant 4th quarter highlight reel worthy moments from the former Longhorn.  Yesterday was further proof that Eli was adopted.
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4.  Jake The Snake.  Plummer was lucky a lot of cable providers haven't flipped the switch to let the NFL Network into every living room in the country yet.  Thursday night wasn't his worst performance of the year.  But he needed big numbers and a W to keep his starters job.  Good luck on the bench, Jake.  Maybe it's time to start polishing up your resume and "highlight" reel.  I hear Favre might retire and open up a spot in Green Bay...and they have very low expectations.
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3.  Michael Vick.  I would have liked to put Vick on a list of solid Week 12 QBs.  166 yards rushing!?!?  Awesome.  Giving your frustrated fans the finger...not so good.  I know Mikey wasn't the one with the butterfingers (5 dropped passes yesterday!).  But dude, you're the franchise QB this team is built around.  If you can't lead the players around you OR get the front office to hire some new blood...you'll continue to be one of the best running backs on a losing team in the NFL.
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2.  Big Ben.  9 sacks yesterday.  I expect Doctors to find something very wrong with him soon to explain the horrendous season.
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1.  Rex Grossman.  This guys is just lucky he's on such a bad ass team that can win in spite of his performance.  I know taking on the Pats at home is a bitch, but 15 for 34 ain't gonna cut it.  What really sealed the deal was the 3 INTs Rex lobbed to Pats CB, Asante Samuel.  That actually tied Samuel for 2nd most Grossman catches yesterday.  Nice.
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Since all of these guys play on high profile teams, the linesetters will probably keep pumping up the spreads on them getting the job done...and we've got 5 more regular season weeks to exploit these guys shitting the bed.  Keep up the not-so-good work, boys.

Gut Check

Hopefully you stayed away from the Pats/Bears game yesterday cuz someone upstairs must like the boys from New England for them to overcome 5 turnovers and still pull out the win. We'll be looking at tonight's MNF match-up more closely later today but here's where we're leaning...
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Seahawks (-10.0) vs the Packers. Green Bay's 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 while Seattle's 7 and 2 ATS in their last 9 at home.
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Over (43) MNF. The Over is 14-3 in Seattle's last 17 vs a team with a losing record and 4 and 1 in their last 5 Monday games.
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Good luck. And, if you haven't qualified for the NFL World Sports Betting Championship yet, you better get on it. Stacks of cash and a Wiseguy Trophy are up for grabs.