Patience pays off

I'm gonna take a guess at how you've been preparing for the NBA season that starts today...and you tell me if I'm wrong.  After the Heat took the trophy you bitched about Dirk owing you money for choking in the Finals, then you spent a couple weeks on YouTube watching every Dwyane Wade highlight reel you could find...and after that you forgot all about basketball for 3 months.  Sound about right?
...
With the season starting up today, you're anxious to get back on the horse and start winning some NBA green again.  After all, hoops were good to your bankroll last year.  It's kind of like a perfect betting mix of the NFL (somewhat predictable) and baseball (a shitload of games).  So you wanna get started picking winners again.
...
Don't.  Well...at least don't go blowing everything you've racked up in the first 2 months of college and NFL betting.  I mean, if you've been riding some trends to some easy pigskin green, the last thing you should do is piss it away on the hardcourt before you've even seen a few games, right?  Let the rookie jitters, coaching miscues and massive egos settle down a little bit first.  Then make your move.  It's a long season so be patient and play it smart.  The first couple weeks are volatile for bettors and can cost you a fortune...while shattering your confidence.
...
But I know a few of you out there are really jonesing for a roundball betting fix.  If there's nothing I can do to stop you...at least try not to do anything stupid.  Study your injury reports.  Cheat off of  some hoop junkie's homework since he bothered to watch training camps and preseason games.  And consider taking some o/u bets in a few days when you identify a matchup with two teams that are each playing good D or are shooting lights out.  Just don't get sucked into some Shaq and Wade can cover any spread stupidity that helped make the Heat the second worst ATS team in the league last year. 
...
It's gonna be a hell of a season...and it can earn us a stack of green.  Just remember that a little patience will pay off.

Gut Check

The NBA regular season's upon us, but predicting how NBA teams will do against the spread based on preseason stats, is bound to produce more trick than treat. So, we're considering the following NCAAF lines instead...
...
SMU (-4.5) vs UAB. UAB's had a tougher schedule but SMU's passing game has been solid. SMU's ranked 63rd in passing yards, while UAB's ranked 90th. And, SMU's QB, Willis, has been much more impressive than UAB's Williams (Willis: 70.1% CMP, 19 TDs, 3 INTs; Williams: 57.9% CMP, 8 TDs, 6 INTs).
...
Under (48.5) SMU vs UAB. The total has gone Under in 8 of UAB's last 11 games and in 4 of UAB's last 5 games on the road.
...
Before you go back to searching for the perfect pumpkin, check out Lauren's Halloween rant.

NFL Contenders & Pretenders

Now that we're a Monday Night Football game away from wrapping up Week 8...it's time to look at the teams that are gonna earn us some green from now to the Playoffs.  At this point all the early hype, fluff and Peter King nonsense has either been proven true...or the smoke and mirrors have been revealed.  So here's the list of who to consider betting for and against.  Use it wisely.
...
The Good
......
Da Bears: 7-0 straight up (SU) & 5-2 against the spread (ATS).  Sure Grossman scared the piss out of you with his come from behind win vs the Cardinals in prime time two weeks ago.  But you oughta thank him for that cuz it made all the Rex doubters out there shy away from riding these undefeated guys no matter how thick the spread.  In other words...it'll cost you less to bet on Chicago to get the job done than if they had a shit-don't-stink Manning/Brady QB under center.  And with the exception of 2 or 3 tough games on their schedule, they've got a lot of cream puffs on the schedule from here to January.
...
Giants:   5-2 SU & ATS.  Lil' Manning's only led his team to two losses this season...against his big bro and vs Seattle in the Seahawks only game of the year that had Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander firing on all cylinders.  So there shouldn't be any doubt that Eli, Tiki and that jackass Shockey can cover some spreads.  But you gotta be careful just piling on the Giants every week cuz they do have some tough competition from here on out.  6 of the 9 teams they're up against are 500 or better ATS so far.
...
Chargers:   5-2 SU & ATS.  Their record is loaded up with some "wins" over some real NFL shitballs.  But they've got a few more huge mismatches in the 2nd half of the season...and there's no reason to think LT and the boys won't keep running up the scoreboard for some more easy covers.   
...
The Bad
...
Seahawks:  4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS.  The knock on Seattle all last season was that their easy schedule let them waltz right into the Super Bowl.  Hell some of you Holmgren lovers still think your team was robbed.  But there's no doubt the God failing to fix Shaun Alexander's broken foot and losing your QB to a knee injury for a few weeks makes this team one to fade until they prove otherwise. 
......
Steelers:  2-5 SU & ATS.  The anesthesia from all of Big Ben's hospital visits clearly hasn't worn off.  And it can't help losing a few of your underrated players...like The Bus and Randle El.  Unless getting shown up by Oakland (who now have the same 2-5 record as the defending Super Bowl champs) kicks their asses into gear...they're done. 
...
The Ugly
......
Dolphins:   1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS.  So it turns out a bad QB is a bad QB...even if he moves to a warmer city.
...
But hey...as usual you gotta take it game by game and see where The House sets the lines and how Joey Public reacts.  It's chess not checkers, dickweeds.

Gut Check

In case you missed it... turbodealer won the 2006 NBX MLB WSBC and the bragging rights, NBX Wiseguy Trophy (a.k.a the "chick magnet") and the $10,000 that comes with snatching the title. Want some of that? Well, put your NFL knowledge to the test in the NBX Fantasy Sportsbook stat. Cuz qualifying for the 2007 NBX NFL WSBC is going on right now. Here are a couple of lines we're considering taking tonight...
...
Vikings (+1.0) vs the Patriots. The Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home. Plus, our NBX NFL analyst, Kevin Gogan, is liking the Vikings in this one. (mp3)
...
Under (39.5) Vikings vs Patriots. Combined average points allowed for these two teams is 29.1 (NE 13.3, MN 15.8). The Under is 6-2 in New England's last 8 games and 6-1 in MN's last 7 Monday games.
...
If you've got a couple minutes, and want a good laugh after you get your NFL homework done, check out Gogan's latest vidcast.

The Larry Brown Show

The AP Top 25 poll has Ohio St. at #1, receiving 63 of the 65 #1 rankings.  So who are the idiots that don't have them ranked 1st?  And what could possibly make them rank West Virginia #1?
...
So about that smudge-gate... I've seen what Frank Robinson did and it messed with Brendan Donnelly's head pretty bad, but correct me if I'm wrong- the Cards still had like 7 innings to hit him and didn't, right?

USC goes down, Cal and Domers should be pissed!

UCLA post Notre Dame...outscored 23-0 in 2nd half by Wassou, goodbye bowl, hello 5-7.

The debate endures: cheapening of the regular season.  95+ win teams sent home, 83 win team world champs?  hmmm...

Robert Swift... the reason the NBA makes players go to college first.
...
Alou out, Bochy in... like that's going to make a difference.
...
"The Player" on Romo: "It's chemistry in the making." Translation: "he throws me the ball."
...
Who orders salad at McDonald's anyway?
...
Tomorrow: first NFL head coaches heads to get the chop.
...
Who told you 4 weeks ago the Jets could be 5-3 heading into their bye?
...
If Damon Huard doesn't play, could Brodie Croyle (in his rookie debut) vs. Seneca Wallace be the worst QB match-up in NFL history?

Plus, Indiana a win away from being bowl eligible!!  Texas coming back from down 21-0, and Oklahoma had the best win of the day.

Gut Check

With the NBA season cranking up on Halloween, this is one of our last chances to focus on football with an uncluttered mind.  So we're celebrating by playing a little Wham Bam Thank You Madden.  And after the Monday morning hangover wears off...we're thinking these bets might have made us a little green...
...
Saints (-1.0) vs the Ravens.  The Saints' offensive stats (246.3 yards passing & 107.8 yards rushing) held up against Baltimore's (177.3 yards passing & 94.3 yards rushing) show they should have this one in the bag...despite all the love McNair's gotten in the press this year.  And you've gotta like that Reggie Bush & Co. are off to a 5-1 ATS start this season.  Gogan was also liking this bet (mp3).
...
Chargers (-9.5) vs the Rams.  San Diego has been beating the hell out of teams, as you can see by their +15.5 point scoring differential (PSD).  No doubt the Rams have exceeded expectations by putting up some wins this season, but their measly +1.8 PSD shows they've just squeaked by their opposition.  The Chargers are a great ATS play at home, where they've covered 5 of their last 7 spreads.  Compare that with St. Louis' 6-12 ATS record on the road...and you can see why Gogan likes his old team to take care of business (mp3).
...
In case you missed it...on Friday's TRAINWRECK show, Gogan made his picks (mp3) on each and every game if you're interested.

We have our winners!

It was a hard fought battle to the very end but the 2006 NBX MLB World Sports Betting Championship Tournament has been decided! We wish we could say that everyone who participated is a winner but since we all learned back in kindergarten that that's a load of B.S., we'd like to congratulate the three cats who finished on the podium...
...
1st Place: turbodealer... He's a 27 year old poker dealer from San Diego,CA and went 17-12 (59%) with his bets to amass an extremely impressive 3,125,000 points! Turbodealer obviously knows how to pick his spots. He finished 65th after the 1st round of the tournament and was 9th after the 2nd round before becoming the top dawg at the end. He not only gets to put the coveted 2006 NBX MLB WSBC Wiseguy Trophy on his mantle (chicks love winners... it's a pheromone thing) but also walks with $10,000.
...
A few words from turbodealer... "I cant believe I made it. I still think of the times I gambled and it paid off... When looking back I did have a few lucky bets, 1. the Mets on the moneyline on October 15th (Final 12 to 5, against the Cards) 2. the total "Over" with a meaningless homerun in the 9th on Oct 21. 3. Gambling on the "Gambler" himself, Kenny Rogers, in the infamous "Pinetar-Gate" game 2 of the WS. And of course sitting out on a few "Bloodbath" games. Know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em was definitely the motto this season!"
...
2nd Place: nyckdkool... He went 19-8 (70%) with his bets to finish with 2,249,706 points and $2,500.
...
A few words from nyckdkool...  "I didn't think turbodealer had it to go all in, I was expecting the W, with a major league choke job. The tournament was great, the element of gaming really added to the excitement surrounding a MLB Playoff and WS, MLB should be thanking you for driving viewership... This tournament brought some excitement back to an otherwise dull post season. I didn't piggy back on the Cards to get through the preliminary rounds, I rode the pitching of DET and NYM. DET had a tremendous season, but the arms are young, tired and not battle tested, nor is their pen or roster as a whole. The Cards were in the WS two years ago, got humiliated, they are a perennial playoff team, been having a great season as of late, but fall apart under the playoff pressure. Mind you, this series could easily have gone to Det, had it not been for the ridiculous fielding by pitchers, even Verlander last night, come on dude, eat the ball, stay with your strength, and focus on the next batter. Anyhow, it was fun... the 10K would have been nice but $2,500 is better then a poke in the eye."
...
3rd Place: knucklesandwich... He went 68-40-1 (63%) to finish with 2,120,543 points and the 3rd place prize of $1,000.
...
A few words from knucklesandwich... "This tournament was exhilarating from the start.  I went with 25,000-100,000 bets at a time... until of course betting it all on the Cards in game 5. I was mostly on the dogs during the first half of the tournament. I hit the tournament hard and aggressive and made a ton of bets. This tournament allowed me the chance to show off as a true gamer. Actually, I think most of it was luck and maybe my moons were in line or some shit like that. I want to give thanks to PorkChop for keeping the forum interesting, ploben for keeping up with me in total bets made, the other winners for their superior efforts, and all the other participants for their crappy bets which allowed me to finish in third."
...
Congrats and spend it wisely fellas (remember, the girls at the "Pink Bunny" are getting paid to act like they're into you). And, hopefully you don't mind the rest of us using you as an excuse the next time we get nagged for watching football... "I'm getting ready for the 2007 NBX NFL World Sports Betting Championship baby".

Under the Radar

#25 Georgia vs. #8 Florida... Florida's favored by 13.5.
...
Ahh yes...the world's largest cocktail party has a team with some National Championship aspirations and another team that's been crawling to victories against the likes of Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Rough times between the hedges in Athens... Mark Richt has to get these kids to play inspired football, and it doesn't help that he's only beaten Florida once as the coach of the Bulldogs. Thomas Brown, UGA's starting running back, has been lost for the season and now the Georgia defense, which has looked average at best the past few weeks, must deal with the QB combination of Chris Leak and Tim Tebow. 13.5 points is way too much for this rivalry despite some young and talented Florida wide receivers. Florida will win this game, but not by two TDs.
...
Today's Under the Radar NCAAF Pick: Georgia (+13.5)
...
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) vs. Oakland Raiders (1-5)... The Steelers are favored by 9.
...
Even with Ben Roethlisberger battling injuries throughout the course of the year, he's still played phenomenal football the last two games. Big Ben started off the year pretty poor. He had no TDs and 7 INTs in the first four games. But what a turnaround the last two weeks. Now off his latest concussion last week against the Atlanta Falcons, we'll see how smart the Pittsburgh Steelers organization is on whether to start him against a dreadful (1-5) Raider team. Yeah, the Raiders won last week, but they turned the ball over 5 times to beat a horrible Cardinals team. Art Shell should have stayed on the couch. Big Ben, Charlie Batch, Bubby Brister... it doesn't matter what quarterback you play, this Steelers team will easily cover the 9 point spread. After putting up 45 points against the Chiefs, and 38 points against the Falcons (two decent defenses) the boys from PA will have an easy time in Oaktown.
...
Tomorrow's Under the Radar NFL Pick: Steelers (-9)

What they're saying about the World Series

FOX... at least we only had to put up with this crap for 5 games
...
TBS... that's what we just bid on?
...
Bud Selig... EckSTEEN
...
MLB... it's the parity of MLB, not the cheapening of the regular season
...
Tiger Fans... where can I get my Game 6 and 7 refunds?
...
Tiger pitchers... when do we report to Spring Training?
...
Cards fans... hit it to the pitcher!
...
Pessimistic Cards fans... good thing Izzy was hurt
...
Angel fans... eff that fool Jeff Weaver, 3-10 for us, a game 5 win for the Cards, we were 4 games out of first, you do the math
...
Steinbrenner to Cashman... get me that Weaver guy back
...
Astros fans... eff that fool Preston Wilson, 9 homers in 390 at-bats for us, 8 homers in 111 at-bats for the Cards, we were 1.5 games out of first, you do the math
...
90% of MLB players... Gary Bennett has a ring and I don't
...
95% of MLB players... Scott Spiezio and Juan Encarnacion have more rings than me
...
Molinas... we've got 2 more rings than the Bonds
...
Me... I couldn't be less inspired by a World Series, is it April yet?