Nobody's perfect

Pittsburgh looked like they might give the Colts a game for a little while.  Sure they were getting the shit kicked out of them by the Colts' D.  But Polamalu's sticky fingers kept them close for most of the first half.  The wheels fell off after halftime and laying the wood paid off.  The spread covered but there was no way to know if Big Ben would be rusty or on fire.  So Ace & Hot Rod's added insurance with the moneyline was worth it.
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The sports hacks are spitting out their weekly "The Colts are gonna have a perfect season...unless they lose" articles today.  They all pounced on a comment from Coach Dungy about not killing his starters just to get a perfect season.  But they've got a deep bench and as long as Manning is in the game, they've got a good chance of rolling any team in their way.  None of that matters to us anyway.  We just want them to cover our action when we lay the wood and keep it close when we ride the dogs.
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More bad news for the Giants yesterday.  The NFL apologized to the Seahawks for two bad calls that kept the Giants in the game.  They ought to be sending flowers, candy or a strong bottle of Scotch to poor old Feely.  A blowout would have saved his ass from 2 missed kicks in OT.
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Cypress Hill Irvin is getting run through the media ringer again today.  Holes are opening up in his brother/friend story and his TV interview didn't go too well.  Nobody minds watching the guy squirm.  But this story is a joke.  Who gives a shit?  Smoke weed all day if you want, Mikey.  It can't hurt your "expert" commentary anyway.
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LenDale White got the OK to play Saturday.  Turns out he just bruised his shoulder in practice Sunday.  The line has tightened up a little, but The House still has UCLA as a 21pt dog.  I'm sure Ace & Hot Rod are looking at how lopsided the action is on USC.  Could be a good square line opportunity...especially if White is still hurting.
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Louisville got into the Gator Bowl and lost their starting QB Monday.  They're up in Connecticut Saturday for the last regular season game.  Losing Brian Brohm brought the spread down a few points already (-15.5 Louisville).  A freshman QB and a bowl already scheduled means the Cardinals are gonna be willing to experiment a little.  So if you're liking the dogs at all, you may want to grab it before it moves any further.
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The NBX Wisegirl ain't perfect...but she is close to it.
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Where's the smart green today? 

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Ace and Hot Rod's Value Line (11/29/05)    

We're putting 1.10 units on the Mavericks (+2.5, -110) vs the Bucks tonight.**

• Offense: Mavs 98.4, Bucks 95.8
• Defense: Mavs 93.4, Bucks 99.7
• Point Scoring Differential: Mavs +5.0, Bucks -3.9
• ESPN Power Rankings: Mavs 2nd, Bucks 13th
• The Mavs have been finding a way to win (8-1 for last 9 games), despite injuries to some of their key players.

 ** Up to game time, picks can change with shifting lines, injuries and arrests.  So check back just before the game/event starts, or subscribe to the RSS feed so you get the updates automatically. **

Choke time

Ace & Hot Rod found a real value line yesterday with the Bears +3.  The league's #1 defense was gonna hold the Bucs to a close game and on paper there was a real shot they would win the game outright.  They covered easily but had a little luck getting the win.  Yesterday was the day of the choking kickers and Bryant missed a 29 yarder that would have tied the game in the 4th. 
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The spread on this game was obviously off at -3 Bucs.  It was bound to be close and Chicago should only pick up +1 for being in Tampa.  The House wasn't seeing big action from heavy hitters and they weren't confident enough to put out a square line.  So they set it at 3pts and watched the action split down the middle.  Remember, they make money either way off the juice so a 50/50 game is fine with them.  But the numbers on these teams made +3 Bears look heavy and we took that to the bank.  Easy green.
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Missing a big field goal stings, but blowing 3 in a game is like getting kicked in the nuts.  Jay Feely ain't too popular with Giants fans this morning after handing the Seahawks another win.  At least Feely had the balls to own up to his mistakes in front of the press.  But they're paying him to be a kicker not a punching bag.
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A couple of shit kicks is better than being happy to lose.  The Jets and 49ers have lowered expectations so much that they declare victory when they don't get totally blown out.  With teams this bad, The House sometimes puts out some wide open lines just to get any action on the dogs' side.  So we'll keep an eye out for some REALLY heavy spreads these dogs can cover.
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Your friend Michael Irvin stepped in it again over the weekend.  You'd think a guy hoping to get into the Hall of Fame this year would keep his nose clean.  But his "friend" left a pipe in the car and Mikey got popped for it.  Still got to show up to work on Sunday so he'll probably just steer clear of real trouble again.  But his rap sheet is growing...
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Speaking of rap sheets...Kobe put up some big numbers last night at home against the Nets.  He posted 46 of the Lakers 96 points, but they still lost to Kidd and the Jersey boys.  Like I said yesterday, it takes more than one marquee player to win games.
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Pretty Boy Leinart and Reggie Bush get most of the headlines, but LenDale White is a hell of a RB.  So USC could really miss him Saturday against UCLA if he's out with a shoulder injury.  Docs are running tests on him today, but sounds like he was in a lot of pain when he went down in Sunday's practice.  Only an injury to Leinart or Bush would move the line towards UCLA.  So we'll see if this makes the Bruins plus the points a value line.
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The NBX Wisegirl could ice any kicker.
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Where's the wind blowing today? 

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Ace and Hot Rod's Value Line (11/28/05)    

We're putting 3.36 units on the Colts (moneyline -336) vs the Steelers tonight.**

• Offense: Colts 30.5 (#1 in NFL), Steelers 23.6
• Defense: Colts 15.2 (#2 in NFL), Steelers 16.1
• Point Scoring Differential: Colts 15.3, Steelers 7.5
• Manning: 18 TDs in last 8 games and has won his last 4 MNF games (11 TDs, 2 INTs).
• Colts last 12 as 3.5 to 7 point favorites: 11-1 straight up.
• Colts "D": 3rd in sacks in the NFL with 13 INTs and 22 forced fumbles so far this year.
• Colts are home and have the extra motivation of having a chance to go undefeated.

 ** Up to game time, picks can change with shifting lines, injuries and arrests.  So check back just before the game/event starts, or subscribe to the RSS feed so you get the updates automatically. **

Head in the bowl

College players and coaches already had their heads in the Bowl games this week.  And that lack of focus almost landed a few seasons in the porcelain bowl.  We talked about the Longhorns yesterday, but they weren't the only ones who nearly came up short.
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Notre Dame almost got beat by the Stanford nerds yesterday.  The luck of the Irish gave them a TD in the final minute.  The fat man at the wheel, Charlie Weis, would have been run out of South Bend if he blew their chance at a top Bowl slot in the last week of the season.
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LSU tried hard to give up their #3 BCS ranking Friday when they played Arkansas.  They coughed up a lot of points in the 2nd half to the Razorbacks but will squeak through to the SEC finals this weekend.
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The point is...these guys are tired physically and mentally at this point in the season.  So even if they've run the table and are headed for a big Bowl, they can blow it in these last couple weeks.  That's an important lesson for you dickweeds cuz there is green on the table when you take the dogs with heavy spreads this time of year.  UT and USC both have games they should win next week.  The House is gonna need to give CU a lot of points to get anyone to take them against UT.  Could be perfect opportunities for us to make a little green. 
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The bodies are piling up in the NFL.  So pay close attention to injury reports before you laydown any green this weekend.  Sapp is out for the season which could kill the Raiders' momentum.  The 49ers are still pussy footing around with their weak roster.  And the Bengals just cut Reggie Myles for fighting with Carl Powell.  Now fighting in the locker-room is bad news.  But Powell outweighs Myles by 80lbs.  So I think this kid has got the fire and brass balls Cincinnati needs on the field.  I'd say give Myles another chance to take his anger out on the Ravens today.
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AI and LeBron are still proving it takes a whole team to win in the NBA.  They had 40 & 38 points last night and still lost.  So much for the "teams" that were built around these guys.  At least James has some time left to win a ring.  Iverson would have to jump ship and ride the pine if he wants a championship and that's not gonna happen.
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As far as golf goes, the Skins are a joke.  A chance for the guys to play grab ass in front of the cameras.  So it was no surprise to look up from the bar at the TV and see Fred Funk wearing a skirt.  Sorenstam outdrove him on the 3rd hole and ABC Sports would have cut to commercial if he whipped his pecker out.  So a skirt was the only option.
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The NBX Wisegirl could talk you into wearing a skirt on TV.
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Where's the smart green today...

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Ace and Hot Rod's Value Line (11/27/05)    

We're putting 1.10 units on the Bears (+3, -110) at Tampa Bay today.**

• Defense: CHI 11.0, T.B. 18.3
• Point Scoring Differentials: CHI 5.9, T.B. 2.3
• Against The Spread (ATS): CHI 6-3-1, T.B. 5-5
• Bears are the toughest team to score on in the NFL and are 2nd best at defending the pass.
• This should be a close, low scoring game, so we're liking the dog and the points.

 ** Up to game time, picks can change with shifting lines, injuries and arrests.  So check back just before the game/event starts, or subscribe to the RSS feed so you get the updates automatically. **

Pissing away the trophy

UT eventually beat Texas A&M yesterday, but not before Vince Young pissed away his Heisman prospects.  He didn't have a terrible game and the team is a championship game win away from the Rose Bowl.  But with Reggie Bush's show last week (294 rushing yards, 68 receiving and 2 TDs), Young needed to step it up if he wanted the trophy for his mantle.  It's a shame because I think the hacks that pick the Heisman wanted to get away from USC this year.  Young could still pull it out if he single handedly delivers next Saturday, but the odds aren't too good.
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Bush, Matt Lachey-Leinart  and the Trojans are mentally unpacking their gear in the Rose Bowl locker-room already.  But the Aggies showed what a rival can do when they're motivated.  So the UCLA line could give us some value in the dogs.  We'll have to wait to see how The House deals with Joey Public putting everything they've got on the Trojans.  The House might see it as a square line opportunity and leave the door open for us to ride the dogs to the green.
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Speaking of dogs, Big Ben is coming back for MNF this week against the Colts.  A rested QB could give the Colts a real game.  They're no doubt feeling beat up this far into the season and the pressure could keep this game close.  The line is at Colts -8.5 this morning.  Let's see where it goes from here...still plenty of time let Ace & Hot Rod crunch numbers.
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The Mavs beat the Heat last night for their 7th straight win and easily covered the spread.  They also shit canned Doug Christie because of his ankle problems.  Don't matter cuz they are rolling teams at home and away.  Might be some good value lines before everybody catches on.
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On the other side of the coin, Detroit came up short in double OT and helped the Wizards out of their slide.  The spread was heavy on this one at Pistons -10.  So The House cleaned up and Joey Public's kids won't have much under the tree this XMas.
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Wie showed she can talk smack better than the boys yesterday.  She said missing the cut by 1 in a mens tourney shows chicks can play.  That's the spirit, baby.  And if anybody gives you any shit while you're earning us green, let uncle Lou know.  I'll handle it.
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The trust fund kids up at CU weren't too happy about losing to the Nebraska farmboys yesterday.  So they beat the hell out of the players with bottles and junk.  But don't feel too sorry for CU.  Playboy says they have the 9th hottest campus around and I didn't notice Nebraska's corn-fed coeds on the list.
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The NBX Wisegirl could take your mind off of losing.
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Where's the smart green today...

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Ace and Hot Rod's Value Line (11/26/05)    

We're putting 1.10 units on the over (o/u: 60, over: -110) for the Fresno State/UNR game today.**.

• Combined average points scored per game: 72.2 (Fresno State 40.0, UNR 32.2)
• Fresno State scored 42 points against the Trojans at USC last week.
• Total when these 2 teams met last year: 71 (Fresno State won 54-17)

 ** Up to game time, picks can change with shifting lines, injuries and arrests.  So check back just before the game/event starts, or subscribe to the RSS feed so you get the updates automatically. **

Indigestion in OT

If you had a couple of minutes between helpings, you probably layed down some green on the Cowboys to cover the +3.  I thought it was a lock (hopefully you bought the extra 1/2 pt to make it +3.5 like I suggested in the Sports Action Show) until these pricks blew the winning field goal in the 4th.  And then in OT with a gut full of food and Scotch, I was screaming at the TV and that speedy little bastard, Ron Dayne.  The fat fuck is as wide as he is tall (5'10"/245).  Can't any of the Cowboys tackle his fat ass?!?!  The Broncos must have promised him a feed bag if he came through.  Oh well...at least it pushed.
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The Lions played like they were inspired by cars from Detroit...slow, overpriced and broken down.   Looks like they're done kickin' the tires on Mariucci.  His ass is gonna be packing today.
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WVU's QB, Pat White, made it look easy yesterday.  Sometimes college QBs have their heads in the NFL draft already.  They don't want to get injured and lose out on the big payday.  So they toss the ball quickly to keep the defense from roughing them up.  But White is only a freshman.  This kid had 23 carries for 220 yards proving he's got shit for brains or Pittsburgh fielded a bunch of chumps and he was never in danger of being tackled.
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I told you the other day to ride LeBron's momentum at home.  Well last night proves you should stay away from him on the road for a while.  Ronny Artest kept him contained and the Pacers bludgeoned the Cavs.  Artest is still out to prove something and he's been earning for us along the way.  So we'll be looking for more Value Lines that the chip on his shoulder will cover.
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We lost a good one today...George Best kicked the bucket in London.  Most of you dickweeds have never heard of this guy because he's a soccer star from the 60's.  But this guy scored a lot of goals and banged every hot piece of ass in a go-go dress including Bond girls and Miss USA.  He blew every penny he ever made and said, "I spent a lot of money on booze, birds and fast cars - the rest I just squandered."  The Brits gamble on everything and I'm sure a couple of degenerates had action on Best's exact time of death.    
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I don't think George ever tagged the NBX Wisegirl of the day.  But in his prime...he would have tried.
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Where's the smart green today...
...

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Ace and Hot Rod's Value Line (11/25/05)    

We're putting 1.05 units on Texas (-28, -105) vs Texas A&M today.**.

• Texas is 10-0 and 9-1 ATS so far this year
• Point Scoring Differentials: Texas 35.8, Texas A&M 2.0
• Texas is coming off a bye week and crushed their last 2 opponents 66-14 and 62-0.

 ** Up to game time, picks can change with shifting lines, injuries and arrests.  So check back just before the game/event starts, or subscribe to the RSS feed so you get the updates automatically. **

 

Sweet Lou is thankful for...

All the sports hacks are doing it...so uncle Lou is gonna run down my list of things I'm thankful for too.
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So chew on this:

• Home dogs.  2 of 'em in the NFL today, the Cowboys & Lions.  One is underrated.  The other stinks but has accidentally won a couple of big games this year.  I'd wait as late as possible to laydown any green on either game.  The chumps are busy stuffing turkeys this morning.  But The House might move the lines more to balance out Joey Public once his bird is in the oven and he puts up the rent money.
• Tiger.  The kid won his 6th Grand Slam yesterday after almost pulling out with a case of King Kameamea's Revenge Tuesday.  Tiger puts a lot of green in our pockets and even us emotionless sharks like watching him play.
• Michelle Wie.  5 shots back on the leading boys after the 1st round at the Casio in Japan.  I've said it before but this little honey is gonna pad our bankrolls for years.
• Neutral arbitrator Richard Bloch.  We finally get some time off from your friend TO and Drew "Bob Sugar" Rosenhaus.  But they'll be back...
• Gluttony.  Well, Sweet Lou's normal life revolves around food, booze, cards and watching sports.  But I'm thankful that for one day a year, that's what your old lady expects you to do.

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We're all thankful for the NBX Wisegirl.
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No turkey dinner for Ace & Hot Rod.  They ordered takeout and are pouring over stats. 

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Ace and Hot Rod's Value Line (11/24/05)    

We're putting 1.1 unit on Dallas (+3, -110) vs the Broncos today.**.

• Point Scoring Differentials: Dallas Home +11.8, Broncos Away +0.5
• Dallas has found a way to slow down other explosive running backs so far this year (held Tomlinson to 72 yards and Alexander to 61 yards).
• The public and 7 out of 8 ESPN "experts" are all piling on Denver.  So, we're going the other way.
  

 ** Up to game time, picks can change with shifting lines, injuries and arrests.  So check back just before the game/event starts, or subscribe to the RSS feed so you get the updates automatically. **

Beat that turkey

Ace & Hot Rod found a real value line yesterday with the Jazz +10.5 over the Supersonics.  Easy green behind the big Turk, Mehmet Okur.  The kid put up 24pts and 9 boards that gave these dogs the win on the road.  Now Sweet Lou hates the sports hacks throwing lines about turkeys into every single article they write around Thanksgiving.  But this line was really a turkey and a Turk beat the hell out of it.
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The Cavs are rolling over teams at home this season and last night was no exception.  LeBron had 36pts in the 115-93 win over the Celtics.  And that kind of blowout is par for the course this year.  They're punishing teams by an average of 21pts.  The House is gonna overcompensate for that fact and force Joey Public into laying too much wood on the Cavs.  So we'll keep an eye out for Value Lines on a Cavs spread that is too heavy.
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Big Ben is coming back for Monday's showdown with the Colts.  The chumps will be lining up for miles to lay the wood on the Colts at home.  So the smart green might line up the other way on the spread.  We'll see how the lines are looking in the next couple of days.
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Ace's favorite golfer, Mangina Mickelson got slapped around by Tiger again yesterday.  Just another day in the PGA...but this time Tiger did it with a fever and a case of the cold sweats.  If Woods is still suffering, it could be a good value to go with a head to head line against him today.  Yesterday had to take a lot out of him.
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College teams are scrambling and back room dealing to get into bowls.  Athletic directors would pimp out their daughters to get to prime time spot.  But that whoring is nothing compared to the bowls themselves...The San Diego Country Credit Union Poinsettia, Gaylord Hotels Music City, Chick-fil-A Peach.  Ridiculous.
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Sorry dickweeds, Danica Patrick is off the market.  She married her doctor Saturday.  If it doesn't work out, I'm sure she'll call you.
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The NBX Broad of the Day might be on the market, but she's out of your price range.
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Where's the smart green today?

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Ace and Hot Rod's Value Line (11/23/05)    

We're putting 1.80 units on the Spurs (moneyline -180) over the Warriors tonight.**.

• Offense: Spurs 96.9ppg, Warriors 94.6ppg
• Defense: Spurs 89.6ppg, Warriors 92.0ppg
• Point Scoring Differentials: Spurs +7.3, Warriors +2.6
• Head to Head last 10 between these 2 teams: Spurs have won 8, Warriors 2
• Starting Lineups ppg: Spurs 70.3, Warriors 65.6

 ** Up to game time, picks can change with shifting lines, injuries and arrests.  So check back just before the game/event starts, or subscribe to the RSS feed so you get the updates automatically. **

Right through the heart

The Packers went down to the Vikings by a field goal for the second time this season.  You know it must have felt like a shot through the heart for Brett Favre.  He put up solid numbers all night, but the team just couldn't seal the deal.  Green Bay's running backs were a real weak link in the team - 14 carries for a total of 21 yards.  The House knows the Green Bay facepainters and Joey Public love betting the Packers at home.  So they skinned a lot of green off the chumps yesterday.
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Rumors about Favre throwing in the towel after this season are looking more and more unlikely.  No QB wants to go out as a loser.  So here's Sweet Lou's advice for scraping together an '06-'07 season that'll let Brett leave with his chin up...
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...Sign that prick TO to a big one year contract.  I know it sounds crazy.  But that punk is gonna be looking to earn some coin next year.  And everyone remembers him kissing Favre's ass in the press a couple weeks ago.  Win some games for Favre's final season and then cut him loose.  They'll be tempted to keep TO around if he has a big year, but he would just rip a new team apart while they're breaking in a new QB.  This way Favre goes out a winner, TO makes a couple bucks and regains some earning power in the league, and we ride them for some easy green.  Everyone wins.
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Jiri Fischer of the Red Wings suffered a real heart stopper yesterday.  He came off the ice and collapsed on the bench.  25 years old with a history of heart problems.  Hope he's squirreled away a few bucks off the NHL minimum salary cuz I think he's gonna be out for a while.
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Pete Rose thought he took another slug to the chest yesterday.  He found out Selig isn't gonna rule on his reinstatement in time for the Hall of Fame voting in his final year of eligibility.  That's what you get for making laydowns on your own team.  But Selig shouldn't slither out of this mess on a technicality.  Be a man, Bud and call it like you see it.
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NCAA ball is quietly cranking up for the year.  Like I said last week, the Longhorns' ballers are playing with a chip on their shoulder for being ranked #2 before the first jump ball of the season.  They squeaked through last night over West Virginia with another double-double by LaMarcus Aldridge.  This kid is gonna earn us a lot of green when the rest of the team rises to his level.
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The NBX Broad of the Day hopes you can rise to the occasion.
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Where's the smart green today?

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Ace and Hot Rod's Value Line (11/22/05)    

We're putting 1.05 units on the Jazz (+10.5, -105) vs the Supersonics tonight.**.

• Point Scoring Differentials: Jazz -2.4, Seattle -7.2
• Jazz ATS this season: 7-5
• Jazz ATS last 7 away: 5-2
• 5 of Utah's 7 losses so far this season were by 9 points or less.
• Utah's coming off a huge 100-80 upset win over Milwaukee last night in which they were 4.5 point dogs and playing without Kirilenko, McLeod and Boozer.  We think this young and hungry squad will carry some of that confidence and momentum into tonight.

 ** Up to game time, picks can change with shifting lines, injuries and arrests.  So check back just before the game/event starts, or subscribe to the RSS feed so you get the updates automatically. **

Shootouts & shutouts

With a lot of points on the board in the heavily hyped Colts/Bengals game, most of the hacks are leading off today with some cowboy shootout headlines.  Whatever you say, chumps.  Last week, they were all trying to pump this game up as the upset waiting to happen.  But Peyton and the boys are getting the job done.  So we can keep laying the wood when the price is right or looking for dogs that can cover a heavy Colts spread.  Either way, it's easy green.
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Joey Public and his friends still don't want to bad mouth the Pats.  I understand Belichick's pop threw in the towel Saturday so everyone wants to play nice.  But when they only beat the Saints by 7 at home, you gotta call 'em on it.  They had a good run with 3 out of the last 4 Super Bowls.  Now it's time to start saving some dough for trades and draft picks next year. 
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Ricky Williams had a half decent game but the rest of the Dolphins played like dead fish and got shutout.  They weren't the only goose egg yesterday though.  Bollinger had his bell rung hard early in the game against the Broncos.  The Jets let Old Testaverde and Kingsbury throw the ball but still never put any points on the board.  With football like that, there isn't a spread generous enough for us to put a laydown on the Jets this season. 
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If it wasn't for a field goal in the 4th, the Panthers would be on the shutout list too.  The Bears are sneaking up on everyone as a contender this year.  With TO, the Colts and FBI investigation stealing most of the football coverage this week, Joey Public might not catch on to the Bears' momentum.  We'll keep an eye out for value lines on Chicago heading into Tampa Bay next week.
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Nothing helps a team get along better than winning.  So after a week when Brown and Marbury were blaming each other for their terrible start, everyone is happy.  The first home win for the Knicks got Marbury a standing ovation and a pat on the head from Brown.  But the good times won't last when Steph starts running his mouth again.  If it wasn't for TO, this guy would get a lot more attention for being a pain in the ass.  And with a long season, he'll be stirring shit up again soon.  The O/U on Marbury doing sit-ups in his driveway while the cameras are rolling is 8 weeks.  Any takers
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Now Sweet Lou is a man for the track, tables, links and bar.  I don't spend my time sipping MGD from a can with hicks in a boat.  But if the chicks in this fishing calendar are for real...I'm gonna buy a pole today.
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The NBX Broad of the Day ain't no hick.
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Where's the smart green today? 

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Ace and Hot Rod's Value Line (11/21/05)    

We're putting 2.48 units on the Packers (moneyline -248) over the Vikings.**.

• Offense: Packers 22.3 (25.5 home), Vikings 17.1 (11.6 away).
• Green Bay leads MN offensively in total yards per game and yards passing per game.
• Defense: Packers 20.4 (16.5 home), Vikings 25.3 (30.8 away).
• Green Bay leads MN defensively in yards allowed, pass yards allowed and rush yards allowed.
  
• Point Scoring Differentials: Packers +1.9 (+9.0 home), Vikings -8.2 (-19.2 away)
• 2005: Favre at home 65.4% CMP, 7.43 YPA.  Johnson away 51.7% CMP, 5.1 YPA.
  

 ** Up to game time, picks can change with shifting lines, injuries and arrests.  So check back just before the game/event starts, or subscribe to the RSS feed so you get the updates automatically. **